For me, the biggest surprise during last week’s presidential election vote counting is that there weren’t many surprises at all.
We have been conditioned by the 2016 and 2020 elections to expect surprises. This year, the biggest one was that the election wasn’t as close as everyone thought it would be.
Once again, the polls understated Donald Trump’s support. So many of them had the race between him and Kamala Harris as a dead heat. The Washington Post’s tracking of several polls had Harris slightly ahead in four of the seven swing states.
The polls were not wrong by much. But Trump won five of the seven swing states Tuesday night and wound up sweeping them with wins in Arizona and Nevada.
You could tell by 10:30 or 11 p.m. on election night that things were looking good for Trump. Lots of people love to denigrate CNN as fake news, but their election reporting is better than anyone else’s, and that’s the channel I watched for most of the night.
John King is masterful, using his huge electronic map of the country to drill down into the results in counties all across the nation.
He probably goes through the information too quickly for some viewers, but once you get the hang of it, it’s not hard to keep up.
In the swing states, the map showed how many votes were in from large counties, and in state after state, Trump built up a lead that Harris could not overcome.
I can say with confidence that the next four years will be interesting. As he tends to do when he wins, Trump said all good things early Wednesday morning. But there’s no doubt that in his zeal to remake the federal government, he’ll overreach at some point.
It happens: Several of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal programs got shot down by the Supreme Court.
Republicans have won control of the Senate, and are favored to hold onto the House as well. If that happens, watch how all the Democrats who have been agitating to get rid of the Senate’s filibuster suddenly change their mind.
Now in the minority, they can use the filibuster to slow down the Trump Train. It will be a good civics lesson.
And while I’m at it, please leave the Electoral College alone. The founders set it up for a reason — to protect the interests of small states like Mississippi.
Another lesson comes from the results. James Carville, one of Bill Clinton’s strategists in 1992, famously posted a sign at headquarters that said, “It’s the economy, stupid.” The sign for the 2024 election can be, “It’s the inflation, stupid.”
It wasn’t abortion rights, or the Jan. 6 Capitol assault, the indictments, the assassination attempt against Trump, or anything else.
I thought Trump’s most effective advertising was about the economy, although the one that showed Harris supporting surgical rights for transgender prisoners was a close second. Without saying it directly, it showed how out of touch she had been.
In the end, Trump could say the economy did well when he was president (it did until covid-19 came along), but inflation had wrecked everything. And 51% of those who voted Tuesday agreed.
I’ll repeat the theme of my column last week, plus an editorial last Tuesday: History proves that the country prospers no matter which party has control in Washington.
How about this: In the 64 years since 1960, Democrats and Republicans each have held the presidency for 32 years. You can’t get more equal than that.
So if you’re a Republican who’s thrilled with the election results, enjoy the ride. If you’re a Democrat who’s dismayed, be patient. The pendulum of American politics is always swinging.
One interesting thing: When Trump finishes his second term in 2029, what Republican can replace him? He’s a unique individual.
If the Republican Party is now all about Trump, which is the way he likes it, how does it find a successor? And who knows what crises await the incoming president besides Ukraine and the Middle East?
Thus the opportunity for Democrats. They have four years to get ready for it.
