At first glance, it might appear that Donald Trump’s efforts to torpedo Obamacare have backfired. Despite slashing the budgets for marketing and outreach for the federal health exchange, the numbers were way up for the first month of enrollment for the insurance coverage.
According to numbers released last week, nearly 2.8 million Americans had signed up for policies during the first 25 days of the enrollment season that began Nov. 1 — about a third more than had signed up by the same time last year.
Mississippi followed the trend, reporting a significant increase in its first three weeks of sign-ups.
Even at this faster pace, though, it’s unlikely that when it’s over, the total Obamacare enrollment number for 2018 will exceed 2017. That’s because the enrollment period has been cut in more than half, from 92 days last year to 45 this year.
For 2018’s numbers to match 2017’s, an average of 200,000 people a day would have to sign up. Through the first 25 days, sign-ups were averaging 110,000 a day — a nice clip but nowhere nearly fast enough to reach last year’s total enrollment. It now looks as if the final numbers will be down by a couple of million, as least on the federally operated insurance exchange.
So, instead of backfiring the way some have portrayed the early rush of enrollments, Trump’s efforts may be performing just as he intended. If fewer people ultimately are enrolled, that will mean less of the insured to spread the claims risk around. That will, in turn, put pressure on more insurers to pull out or to pass on another hefty increase in premiums next year, which will further depress enrollment.
Then, if the Republican Senate’s latest effort to repeal the individual mandate is successful, enrollment numbers will almost certainly fall even more. Young and healthy individuals will be inclined again to take their chances if they don’t have to worry about paying a penalty when they file their income-tax returns.
When Trump ran for the presidency, he said he would repeal and replace Obamacare as one of the first acts of his administration. He wasn’t able to do that, but his fallback plan of doing everything he can to kill it might still work.
